Assessing the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict: Econometric case study of Armenian economy

Abstract

This paper explores the economic impact of migration stemming from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the Armenian economy (in the short run), with a particular focus on the real estate market. The significant influx of Russian migrants due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has introduced economic shifts, particularly in property prices, rental volumes, and housing transactions. The research employs econometric analysis to assess the relationship between migration and real estate market dynamics in Armenia. Data on property transactions, rental prices, and migration flows are analyzed to determine how migration influences housing demand and market trends. The results indicate that migration has led to a rise in real estate prices and rental demand, particularly in urban areas. Additionally, the inflow of skilled IT professionals has contributed to the establishment of new IT firms, further influencing economic activity and housing demand. The paper provides insights for policymakers and real estate stakeholders on how migration-driven market shifts can be managed effectively. Recommendations include developing housing policies to stabilize prices, leveraging migrant-driven economic growth, and mitigating potential risks associated with rapid real estate inflation.