The impact of investment in agricultural, forestry and fisheries on economic growth in Vietnam

Abstract

This study examines the effects of investment in the agricultural, forestry, and fisheries sectors on Vietnam's economic growth from 1998 to 2023. It aims to provide empirical evidence to support effective policy decisions, especially regarding sustainable development in the agricultural sector. The research employs the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) model to analyze both long-term and short-term relationships. Time series data were collected from reliable sources, including Vietnam’s General Statistics Office and the World Bank. Key variables include gross domestic product (GDP), investment in the agricultural, forestry, and fisheries sectors, household consumption expenditure, and labor force participation. Diagnostic tests were conducted to ensure data stationarity and model validity. Results reveal a positive and statistically significant impact of investment in the agricultural, forestry, and fisheries sectors on GDP growth in both the long and short terms. Household consumption expenditure also demonstrates a positive relationship with economic growth, while the labor force significantly affects growth only in the short term. The Error Correction Term (ECT) indicates an adjustment speed of 77.49% to return to long-term equilibrium after short-term deviations. The findings highlight the critical role of investment in the agricultural sector in sustaining economic growth. Policymakers are encouraged to prioritize and increase investment in agriculture to achieve sustainable development goals, improve livelihoods, and enhance Vietnam’s economic stability.