Optimizing university enrollment confirmation timelines: A survival analysis of student decision-making in Mongolia

Abstract

This study investigates the optimal timeline for university enrollment confirmation using survival analysis, focusing on behavioral data from the National University of Mongolia (hereinafter NUM). As higher education institutions streamline operations and competition intensifies, the timing of student decisions becomes increasingly critical. Applying the Cox proportional hazards model to multi-year administrative data, we find that approximately 90% of confirmations occur within the first 600–700 minutes of the registration window. Factors such as program type, institutional affiliation, entrance scores, and regional origin significantly influence confirmation timing. These findings suggest that an 11-hour confirmation period balances logistical efficiency with student decision-making needs. The results align with theories of bounded rationality and decision overload, offering a novel empirical basis for policy reform in developing higher education systems.